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4 min
The unexpected resignation of Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, on January 6, 2025, has placed Canadian immigration policies under the spotlight. His leadership was marked by inclusivity and ambitious immigration targets. But his sudden departure leaves the country at a critical juncture, with difficult decisions ahead about balancing immigration and domestic stability.
Trudeau's resignation has significant implications for millions of immigrants and potential newcomers to Canada. His tenure saw record numbers of immigrants, as his government implemented various Canadian immigration programs that shaped the country's approach to welcoming newcomers.
Trudeau’s Impact on Canadian Immigration
Under Trudeau's leadership, Canada's immigration landscape underwent dramatic change. The country’s population grew from 35 million in 2015 to more than 40 million by 2024, with immigration accounting for over 90% of this growth.
Immigration levels reached unprecedented heights, with the government aiming to bring in 500,000 permanent residents annually by 2025. The Express Entry system was significantly reformed, and immigration targets were consistently raised. However, concerns over housing shortages and growing economic pressures have led to questions about the future direction of Canada’s immigration policies.
Immigration numbers surged significantly during Trudeau's time in office. Quarterly migration figures rose from 27,030 people when he assumed office in 2015 to 413,579 by the third quarter of 2023. Permanent resident admissions also rose by 54.8%, reaching 107,972 during the same period.
Targets Set
Trudeau's government set bold targets for immigration, which included:
- Increasing annual permanent resident targets from 272,000 to 485,000
- Setting goals for Francophone immigration at 8.5% by 2025 and 10% by 2027
- Expanding refugee acceptance from 10,365 in 2013 to 143,770 by 2023
However, as immigration numbers surged, adjustments were made to the policy. For 2025, the permanent resident target was reduced from 500,000 to 395,000, and the number of temporary residents is set to fall to 5% of Canada’s population by 2026.
These changes are designed to address the growing challenges of housing shortages and strain on public services. It is anticipated that these adjustments will result in a slight population decline of 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, with growth resuming at 0.8% in 2027. Additionally, these changes should help alleviate the housing shortage by reducing the gap by around 670,000 units by 2027.
The Road Ahead for Canada’s Immigration Policies
With Trudeau’s resignation, Canada’s immigration system faces a dramatic shift. Canadian immigration professionals believe that the next Canadian government will need to strike a balance between maintaining an open approach to immigration and addressing the increasing pressure from domestic issues.
The immigration department has outlined several new policy goals:
- Reducing permanent resident admissions to 395,000 in 2025
- Decreasing temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2026
- Aiming for 62% economic class immigration by 2027
- Expanding Francophone immigration to 10% by 2027
These adjustments are part of a broader plan to reduce the housing supply gap by about 670,000 units by 2027, and to moderate population growth. A slight population decline of 0.2% is expected in 2025 and 2026, followed by a return to growth at 0.8% in 2027.
The new administration will need to focus on expanding immigration programs that address specific labor market needs, such as the Global Talent Stream and the Provincial Nominee Program. More than 40% of the expected permanent resident admissions in 2025 will come from temporary residents already living in Canada.
These policy changes reflect a shift toward sustainability, focusing on infrastructure development and the successful integration of newcomers. The incoming government must find a balance between encouraging economic growth through immigration and ensuring adequate resources for housing, healthcare, and other essential services.
A New Direction for Canada’s Immigration Future
Trudeau’s exit marks the end of an era of rapid Canadian immigration growth and ambitious targets. Recent policy changes reflect a response to the growing challenges faced by the Canadian housing market, healthcare system, and public services. The Canadian government aims to build a more sustainable immigration system, while continuing to uphold Canada's image as a welcoming nation.
With stricter limits on both permanent and temporary residents intakes already implemented, these changes show how the government is seeking a balanced approach to population growth. The success of this system will depend on effectively managing economic integration, housing development, and public service capacity.
Looking to the future, immigration pundits suggest that policies should focus on controlled growth to ensure that both newcomers and existing residents are adequately supported. Canada’s shift towards more targeted immigration and infrastructure development is key to maintaining its global leadership in immigration.
